Turning back to golf, the Open Championship (known as the British Open in North America) started this morning, and already my preseason pick is out of it. Actually, my pick, Padraig Harrington, was literally out of it before the tournament started, as he withdrew due to his father passing away from cancer this week. My heart goes out to him. And I'm glad I'm not a betting man.

But if I were, I would consider putting some money on a longshot. Because the Open Championship seems to generate the most longshots (or even flukes) of any of the majors. Looking at the last 6 winners, half of them were real surprises. Paul Lawrie (1999), came out of nowhere after Jean Van De Velde (who would have been a longshot winner himself) blew the lead. Ben Curtis (2003), was the biggest longshot ever to win a major, and Todd Hamilton (2004) was a pretty big surprise too (although I actually picked him to win it... really, I did, just after he won his first PGA event earlier in the year - I felt a longshot was going to win that British Open and I went with him because I was impressed with the way he played and his experience worldwide. If only I was a betting man then!)

The reason I think that the British Open generates so many surprise winners (moreso than the Masters and U.S. Open) is because the courses tend to allow for too many tough bounces - even on good shots - that really penalize the players. This can level the playing field and allow for more flukes. This was certainly the case with Ben Curtis. He played well, no doubt. But one of Tiger Woods, Davis Love, Vijay Singh or Thomas Bjorn should have been able to overtake him. But they just got tough breaks, while Curtis didn't really. The R&A doesn't do much to deal with this, and this is why the Masters always produces a top-notch player, no flukes - because Augusta National sets up their course beautifully. You're punished for making a bad shot, but rewarded for good shot. At the Open, it's more of a crapshoot. A good shot can end up bad and a bad shot can end up okay.

If there's ever an exception, it's the Old Course at St. Andrews, which is where they're playing this year. It's no coincidence that this is the only course on which Tiger has won the Open Championship. And after his first round this year, he's already got the lead. He may win (and in fact I picked him to win after Padraig withdrew). It will just be interesting to see if I surprise player does come along on Sunday, and if Tiger will ever win an Open on a course other than St. Andrews.